Operation: Black Swan

Turn-Based Network Architecture Strategy Simulation

4. Game Mechanics & Strategic Systems

4.1 Budget System

The budget system creates realistic financial constraints that mirror real-world infrastructure projects. Budgets arrive in cycles, operational costs are ongoing, and budget delays can occur in expert modes.

Budget Structure

Starting Budget:

  • Formula: NBE × 0.515 × difficulty_multiplier
  • Available: Turn 1
  • Purpose: Creates challenging early game requiring strategic prioritization
  • Difficulty Multipliers:
    • Easy/Standard/Custom: 1.120 (20% bump)
    • Expert: 1.095 (9.5% bump—tighter constraint)

Recurring Budget:

  • Formula: NBE × 1.095 × difficulty_multiplier
  • Timing: Every 5 turns (Turns 6, 11, 16, 21)
  • Purpose: Simulates annual budget cycles in real organizations
  • Difficulty Multipliers:
    • Easy/Standard/Custom: 1.095 (9.5% bump)
    • Expert: 1.055 (5.5% bump—tighter constraint)

Normal Budget Expectation (NBE):

  • Lookup table based on sites × throughput configuration
  • Example: 5 sites × 2 Gbps = $487,500 baseline per turn
  • NBE represents the "normal" budget needed to complete the game comfortably
Example Calculation (Standard Game - 5 sites, 2 Gbps):
NBE baseline per turn: $487,500
Starting budget: $487,500 × 0.515 × 1.120 = $281,148 (available Turn 1)
Recurring budget: $487,500 × 1.095 × 1.095 = $584,625 (every 5 turns)
Total over 25 turns: $281,148 + ($584,625 × 4) = $2,619,648
Average per turn: $104,786

This creates a challenging early game where players cannot afford to build everything immediately, requiring strategic prioritization.

Payment Model

Build Cost:

  • Paid immediately when connection starts building
  • Reflects real-world: you commit funds when you start a project
  • Deducted from budget when connection begins

Operational Cost:

  • Spread over 5 turns as per-turn payments (operationalCost / 5 per turn)
  • Payments start when connection completes
  • Reflects real-world operational expense patterns (ongoing, not one-time)
  • Example: $30,000 operational cost = $6,000 per turn for 5 turns
$30,000 hosted connection (within region) started on Turn 2, completed on Turn 5:
  Turn 2: Pay $10,000 (build cost—paid immediately)
  Turn 5: Pay $6,000 (operationalCost/5 = $30k/5—first per-turn payment)
  Turn 6: Pay $6,000 (second per-turn payment)
  Turn 7: Pay $6,000 (third per-turn payment)
  Turn 8: Pay $6,000 (fourth per-turn payment)
  Turn 9: Pay $6,000 (fifth per-turn payment)

  Total operational cost paid: $30,000 over 5 turns (Turns 5-9)

Budget Delays (Expert/Custom Modes):

  • Budget injections can be delayed by 1-2 turns with 3% probability
  • Adds uncertainty to financial planning
  • Requires players to maintain buffer funds
  • Forces adaptation to unexpected cash flow issues
  • Only available in Expert and Custom modes

Budget Design Principles

The budget structure creates realistic financial constraints through controlled scarcity and recurring cycles. Starting budget provides approximately 50% of Normal Budget Expectation (NBE), forcing strategic prioritization in the early game when players must decide which sites receive connections first. Recurring budgets arrive every 5 turns, simulating annual budget cycles in real organizations where infrastructure funding comes in periodic allocations rather than continuous streams.

Operational costs spread over 5 turns as per-turn payments rather than upfront charges, reflecting how ongoing operational expenses work in practice. Build costs are paid immediately when construction begins, mirroring real project commitment patterns. Budget delays (3% probability in Expert/Custom modes) introduce controlled uncertainty that requires maintaining cash buffers without being punishing. Difficulty multipliers scale both starting and recurring budgets, creating meaningful differences in financial pressure across difficulty levels.

4.2 Connection Types & Building

Players can build three types of connections, each with different characteristics that reflect real-world network connection types:

Type Speed Build Time Build Cost Range Operational Cost Range Use Case
Dedicated 10 Gbps 3-5 turns $40k-$60k $40k-$60k High-throughput requirements, primary connections
Hosted 1 Gbps 2-4 turns $10k-$20k $30k-$50k Cost-effective, partner-managed, moderate throughput
IP Tunnel 1 Gbps 1-3 turns $5k-$15k $20k-$40k Fast deployment, lower cost, backup/redundancy

Strategic Differences:

  • Dedicated: Premium performance, highest capacity, longest build time, highest cost
  • Hosted: Balanced performance/cost, partner dependency, moderate build time
  • IP Tunnel: Fast deployment, lowest cost, good for backup and redundancy

Region Alignment Impact:

  • Within region: Lower build cost, lower operational cost (aligned infrastructure)
  • Inter-region: Higher build cost, higher operational cost (cross-region complexity)

Build Time Randomization:

  • Build times are randomized within type-specific ranges after commitment
  • Reflects real-world project delays and prevents perfect planning
  • Example: Dedicated connection may take 3, 4, or 5 turns (random)

4.3 Site-to-Site Capacity Sharing

Players can create bidirectional site-to-site connections that allow sites to share capacity. These links enable redundancy, cost optimization, and capacity pooling.

Site-to-Site Mechanics

  • Cost: $25k (within region) or $35k (inter-region)
  • Build Time: 2 turns (within region) or 3 turns (inter-region)
  • Hub Limit: Maximum 4 site-to-site connections per site
  • Bidirectional: A→B automatically means B→A (capacity can flow both ways)
  • Strategic Value: Enables redundancy, cost optimization, and capacity pooling

Hub Limit Rationale:

  • Maximum 4 connections per site creates strategic choices about which sites to connect
  • Reflects real-world hub capacity constraints
  • Prevents "star topology" where one site connects to all others
  • Forces players to think about network topology strategy

Regional Cost Differences:

  • Within region: $25k cost, 2-turn build time, optimized for cost efficiency
  • Inter-region: $35k cost, 3-turn build time, enhanced geographic redundancy
  • Players balance regional cost savings against cross-region resilience benefits

Site-to-Site Capacity Architecture

Site-to-site connections enable bidirectional capacity sharing between sites, supporting cost optimization and redundancy strategies. Players can concentrate expensive direct connections at key sites and distribute capacity through site-to-site links, reducing overall infrastructure costs while maintaining throughput requirements. When a site loses direct connections due to events, it can receive capacity from neighboring sites through established links, providing automatic failover without manual intervention.

The hub limit (maximum 4 site-to-site connections per site) creates strategic topology decisions, preventing simple star patterns where one site connects to all others. Cascading capacity sharing generates network-wide resilience, where sites with excess capacity can support multiple needy sites simultaneously. This architecture mirrors real network patterns like hub-and-spoke and mesh topologies, teaching players how capacity pooling and geographic distribution create robust distributed systems.

4.4 Event System

The event system introduces unexpected challenges that test network resilience. Events reflect real-world network outages and require players to plan for failure, not just success.

Event Types (MVP - Phase 1)

1. Colocation Outage

  • Target: Connection location (e.g., Ohio 1, Nevada 2)
  • Impact: All connections routing to that location go offline
  • Duration: 2-4 turns (randomly determined)
  • Cascading: Sites using those connections lose capacity; sites connected via site-to-site also affected
  • Strategic Impact: Encourages geographic diversity, multiple connection locations

2. Site Outage

  • Target: Player's customer site (e.g., Site B)
  • Impact: Entire site goes offline, all connections from that site unavailable
  • Duration: 2-4 turns
  • Cascading: Sites connected via site-to-site lose access to this site's capacity
  • Strategic Impact: Encourages redundancy (multiple connections, site-to-site backup)

3. Specific Connection Outage

  • Target: Single connection at a specific site
  • Impact: Only that specific connection goes offline
  • Duration: 2-4 turns
  • Partial Impact: Other connections at that site remain active
  • Strategic Impact: Encourages multiple connections per site

4. Site-to-Site Connection Outage

  • Target: Specific site-to-site link
  • Impact: That site-to-site link goes offline
  • Duration: 2-4 turns
  • Limited Impact: Sites can no longer share capacity via that link, but direct connections unaffected
  • Strategic Impact: Encourages multiple site-to-site paths or direct connections

Event Frequency & Escalation

Event probability escalates as the game progresses, creating increasing pressure:

Game Phase Turns Probability Per Turn Rationale
Early Game 1-5 5-10% Allow infrastructure building
Mid Game 6-15 10-15% Test emerging resilience
Late Game 16-25 15-20% Maximum pressure and challenge

Escalating Event Frequency

Event probability increases from 5-10% in early turns to 15-20% in late game, creating progressive pressure that matches infrastructure maturity. Early game provides space for initial deployment without constant interruptions, allowing players to establish baseline connectivity. Mid-game escalation tests emerging resilience as infrastructure expands. Late game maximum frequency applies sustained pressure that reveals whether players built genuinely resilient networks or minimum-viable architectures that collapse under realistic operational stress.

Event Duration

  • Events last 2-4 turns (randomly determined when generated)
  • Duration is set when event is created, not known beforehand
  • Adds uncertainty: players don't know how long an outage will last
  • Operational Excellence protection can prevent connection loss (but event still counts)

Strategic Impact

Events encourage:

  • Redundancy Planning: Multiple paths to same destination
  • Geographic Diversity: Don't put all connections in one location
  • Multiple Connection Types: Different types fail independently
  • Site-to-Site Backup: Capacity sharing provides failover

4.5 Mission Points & Win Conditions

Players start with 100 mission points. Points change each turn based on requirement fulfillment. The system rewards resilience under pressure, not just meeting baseline requirements.

Mission Points System

Requirement Status Points Per Turn Notes
< 50% Met -15 Significant penalty for poor progress
50-99% Met -8 Partial progress, manageable penalty
100% Met (No Events) +5 Base reward for meeting requirements
100% Met (1 Active Event) +15 Bonus for resilience (3× base)
100% Met (2 Active Events) +25 Excellent redundancy planning (5× base)
100% Met (3+ Active Events) +35 to +55 Outstanding network architecture (7-11× base)

Event-Based Bonus Scaling

Mission points scale dramatically when players meet 100% requirements during active events, rewarding resilient architectures that maintain capacity under pressure. Meeting requirements with zero active events awards +5 points (baseline), while meeting requirements during 1 event awards +15 points (3× multiplier), 2 events award +25 points (5× multiplier), and 3+ events award +35-55 points (7-11× multiplier). This scaling creates strong incentives to over-provision capacity and build redundancy, recognizing that systems maintaining operation during multiple simultaneous failures demonstrate exceptional architectural quality that justifies disproportionate rewards.

Win/Loss Conditions

Win:

  • Maintain 100% requirements met for all required turns
  • AND mission points > 0 at game end

Loss:

  • Mission points reach 0 (game over immediately—no "death spiral")
  • OR game ends without meeting 100% requirements

Immediate Loss Condition

The game ends immediately when mission points reach zero, preventing extended "death spiral" scenarios where recovery becomes mathematically impossible but the simulation continues. This mechanic creates urgency around maintaining positive momentum, requiring players to build sufficient resilience that they can absorb temporary setbacks without catastrophic point loss. The immediate termination forces strategic thinking about risk management, since sustained capacity failures drain points rapidly and recovery becomes progressively harder as points decline.

Resiliency Tokens (Operational Excellence)

  • Starting tokens vary by difficulty: Easy (2), Standard (1), Expert (0), Custom (1-3)
  • Each token can prevent one connection from going offline during an event
  • Strategic timing decisions determine when to deploy tokens or accept outages
  • Reflects real-world operational excellence practices (preventive measures)